Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
