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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd